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Why not everyone who smokes develop cancer or who eats a lot develop fatty liver disease? Predicting diseases with machine learning

We are much better at handling diseases than 30 years ago. For example cancer survival rates are much higher now. The significant portion of this increase can be attributed directly to our ability to detect and diagnose cancer earlier. Also, use of insulin and other drugs to control blood glucose in diabetic patients reduced the risk of developing coronary diseases. We are at constant hunt for finding new evidence which environmental factors put us at risk for which diseases.